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October 14, 2008

Plenary 4: The Science of the “ShakeOut Scenario”
The Great Southern California ShakeOut is an effort based on the science of over 300 experts describing the impacts and effects of a probable great earthquake along Southern California’s largest fault, the San Andreas. Chief Scientist Dr. Lucile Jones will give an overview of the scientific scenario and its impacts as a way to prepare attendees for the things they will see as part of the Golden Guardian exercise and the ShakeOut Drill, the largest in US history.

Dr. Lucile M. Jones, PhD, Chief Scientist of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, USGS

THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT EARTHQUAKE: Science for 22 Million People

by Dr. Lucile M. Jones, PhD, USGS

On November 13, 2008, Southern Californians will participate in the largest earthquake drill ever held in America, the Great Southern California ShakeOut.  The ShakeOut  is based on an earthquake scenario, the results of a study to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on the southern San Andreas fault in southern California (USGS OFR2008-1150). The USGS partnered with SCEC, the California Geological Survey and many other organizations to bring more than 300 contributors working from geology, seismology, engineering, sociology, public health and economics together to translate our information about the San Andreas fault into impacts of a great earthquake on our society.
This earthquake ruptures 300 kilometers of the southern San Andreas fault with 3-10 meters of fault offset. The fault produces shaking for 100 seconds and those waves resonate around the basins of southern California for almost 4 minutes. The result is significant damage to 300,000 buildings, widespread damage to infrastructure, $213 billion in losses, 53000 injuries and 1,800 fatalities. The fire following the earthquake is the single largest factor with 1,600 fire ignitions large enough to call a fire engine when the fire fighting response is impeded by broken water mains and disrupted transportation. The largest impact on business recovery is the damage to water mains that could lead to $50 billion in business interruption costs.